At least 700.000 “non-constituent” citizens live in Bosnia and Herzegovina

The latest polling conducted by “Prizma” has displayed publicly the importance of methodology in polling in terms of conducting suggestive polling of ethnic/national identity, reaffirming that only a open form for polling can ensure free expression of ethnic/national identity by citizens. Coalition for Equality (Koalicija “Jednakost”) is using this opportunity to again call on the all institutions and bodies responsible for implementing the census, including Council of Minister and state and entity statistical agencies to in no way modify or change the census form during further activities in improving methodology and technical aspects of the census process, in line with recommendations of the International monitoring mission and Eurostat.

The results of the polling display 19% of citizens that did not identify with constituent peoples when the polling question was not suggestive. If the given results were to be applied to the whole of the population of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the expected number of “others” for the 2013 census would number at least 700.000 citizens.

Methodology of polling conducted is unclear as the public was informed with contradicting information such as that the research was conducted in 52 municipalities in BiH and that the sample size was selected on the same principles as the trial census, polling a total of 1.563 persons. However, the sample size for the trial census had a much larger sample size, including 30 municipalities with 3 statistical areas and Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Brčko with 6 statistical areas with a total ranging around 20.000 persons. It is also unclear what percentage of persons polled were given open, closed, or half-open lists and also the stratification and selection of polled persons, rendering the research results as very questionable.

Due to all unknown factors regarding the methodology of the research, the results must be taken with reservation. Also, when taking in account that the director of “Prizma” agency has already displayed affiliation with the campaign “Important to be Bosniak” (Bitno je biti Bošnjak)  and participating on behalf of the campaign in a round table event organized by Federation news agency in November 2012. Therefore it can be understood that the conducted polling had preference towards “constituent” ethnic identification, which is one of the vital factors affecting results of such polls. As the mentioned factors will not be present during the census and methodology clear and transparent, it can be expected that the percentage of “others” during the census will be higher than displayed by this particular polling. Approaching the census, the Coalition for Equality will conduct several polls which will provide additional information and generate more accurate expectations of the census, conducted by foreign experts for conducting population census.

Coalition for Equality (Koalicija Jednakost)